The Engineer’s Lens

I have always sought comfort in the cold and quiet certainty of numbers.

I analyze existence through the framework of probability and statistics because numbers do not lie, and are brutally honest. Whether it is financial planning, career architecture, or the fragile complexity of human relationships, I construct my worldview on impartial evidence. I try to strip away the noise of emotion to find the fundamental principles beneath.

This approach has protected me. It has rarely failed me. Until I looked at social media.

Recently, I’ve watched a wave of people, my closest friends, my relatives, people I grew up with desperately clamoring to become "Influencers." And when I look at the incentives, I understand why. It is a path that offers an escape from the grind. It doesn’t demand cracking competitive exams or seeking government clearance. It promises success label, fame, and a staggering amount of money at the top, and sometimes even overnight success.

But when I looked closer, I saw a chaotic landscape divided by predictable archetypes.

The men usually gravitate towards

• moto-vlogging
• gaming
• reaction videos.
• tutorials and memes pages

The women often gravitate towards

• lifestyle vlogging
• skincare routines
• makeup
• dance trends.

The Personal grudge

I have always hated the concept of "being a creator" (not the person, but the job description). My mind would scream "Power Law Distribution!" at every viral success story.

My personal biases reinforced this skepticism. As a guy, I am naturally blind to the appeal of skincare and lifestyle vlogs (I barely have a skincare routine myself, and no life at all).

But even the "male-centric" content baffled me.

• Gaming: Why would I watch someone else play when I can play the game myself? I only watch gameplay for specific hacks or combos I can use, pure utility.

• Reaction Videos: Why do I need a middleman to react to a video I can watch directly?

• Moto-vlogging: I don't drive (my parents were protective of their only child, so I never learned). While I view driving as a life skill, I would still rather ride than watch someone else ride.

To me, consumption without utility felt like a runtime error. I only consumed content for two reasons: High-Octane Entertainment (like Anime) or Learning (Tutorials).

When Instagram Reels dropped, I swore I’d never use it. I hated TikTok; I hated the infinite scroll.

The Hypocrisy & The Observation

Eventually, the algorithm won. I found myself doom-scrolling memes just like everyone else. But while others were enjoying the show, I was stress-testing the logic. It became less about enjoyment and more of a mental exercise: Why is this engaging?

I never criticized my friends who pursued this as a career. I watched some hit 50k followers in youtube, others get millions of views, expanded their network. But as an engineer, I noticed a concerning trend in the underlying economics:

• Low ROI: Almost no one was living off ad revenue or brand collabs.
• High Risk: The income was peanuts and unstable compared to their predictable career salaries.
• Survivor Bias: The "successful" ones weren't just making videos, they were running businesses! selling courses or products.

The "Chaos" Problem

What triggered my OCD wasn't the content, it was the lack of methodology.
I saw one friend investing heavily in cameras and gear, spending hours editing, mastering voiceovers, and trying to mimic their favorite influencers. But it was all imitation, not design.

Others were brute-forcing the algorithm. Success seemed random.

As an engineer, I hate chaos. I hate inefficiencies. I saw people working hard with no guarantee of output. So, I decided to stop analyzing from the sidelines. I decided to get my hands dirty.

I launched an experiment to answer one question: If I apply System Design principles to this chaos, is it really worth it?

The Mathematics of The Feed

To solve this problem, I had to stop looking at Instagram as a social network and start treating it as a Stochastic System.

I ignored the "Algorithm". People obsess over

• hashtags
• posting times
• trending audio.

To me, those are just noise variables. If you strip away the UI, the recommendation engine is simply a Probability Filter.

I modeled the entire career of an "Influencer" using three fundamental mathematical concepts.

1. The Bernoulli Trial (The Ticket)

Every time you post a video, you are initiating a Bernoulli Trial. It is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes:

• ✅ Success (1): The video goes viral (captures the "Tail Event").
• ❌ Failure (0): The video flops (gets 200 views).

Let p be the probability of a single video going viral.
For a normal person, p is incredibly low.

Let’s conservatively say p = 0.01 (1%).

Most people approach this emotionally. They pour their heart into one video (one trial), upload it, and get depressed when it fails.

Mathematically, this is irrational. If you only conduct one trial with p=0.01, your probability of failure is 99%.

2. The Binomial Distribution (The Volume)

This is where the "Consistency" advice actually comes from, it’s not about discipline; it’s about statistics.

If I post n videos, the probability of getting at least one viral hit (P) is calculated as:

P = 1 - (1 - p)ⁿ

Let's plug in the numbers assuming p = 0.01 (1% chance per video):

• The "Perfectionist" (n=1):
  You spend a month making 1 perfect video.
  P = 1 - (0.99)¹ = 0.01
  (1% Chance)
• The "High Frequency" (n=30):
  You post daily for a month.
  P = 1 - (0.99)³⁰ = 0.26
  (26% Chance)

By simply increasing n (Volume), I increase my odds of success by 2600%. I realized that if I wanted to win, I didn't need to be lucky. I just needed to buy more lottery tickets.

Case Study: The Brute Force Method

@puneetsuperr_star

Joined Feb 2020

He was posting every HOUR non-stop for 6 years straight!

TIME ~2,166d

VOLUME 42,981

FREQ ~20/day

Expected Viral Hits (E = n × p)

E = 42,981 × 0.01 ≈ 430 Viral Hits

"he didn't win the lottery. He bought every single ticket in the store to get 9.8M Followers!"

3. The Power Law (The Payoff)

Why does one viral video matter? Because social media returns follow a Pareto Distribution (Power Law), not a Normal Distribution (Bell Curve).

One outlier pays for 10,000 failures.

In a corporate job, returns are Linear. You work 10% harder; you get a 10% bonus. On the internet, returns are Asymptotic:

THE MAJORITY (99%) Videos get < 1,000 views

THE TAIL (1%) Videos get > 1,000,000 views

Capturing just one Tail Event outweighs the failures of 100 previous attempts. This is why "cringe" creators succeed, when they survive long enough to hit the tail.

Reel Composer

The Director's Studio

Reel Composer is a "Director's Studio" that transforms raw talking-head footage into high-retention "Edutainment" content.

It leverages Google Gemini to intelligently analyze your transcript and generate synchronized, broadcast-quality HTML5/GSAP animations that overlay your video.

The Philosophy: Quantity > Perfectionism

"In the world of algorithms, Volume is Leverage."

To grow on social media, you must understand the Statistics of Virality.

1. The Probabilistic Reality

Going viral is a probabilistic event. It is a lottery where every video you post is a ticket.

• Low Volume: Posting 1 "Perfect" video a month = 12 chances/year.
• High Volume: Posting 1 "Good Enough" video a day = 365 chances/year.

2. The Credibility Trap

Usually, increasing volume means sacrificing quality. However, low-quality content hurts your authority.

• The Dilemma: High-end motion graphics build trust but take days to edit in After Effects.
• The Solution: Reel Composer automates the "Credibility Layer."

3. Automating Authority (The Core Insight)

LLMs are notoriously bad at generating video pixels directly (Sora is expensive and hallucinates). But LLMs are excellent at generating code.

Reel Composer bridges the gap by treating Video as Code. It generates pure HTML/CSS/GSAP animations that are:

• Iterable: Don't like the color? Just change the CSS.
• Glitch-Free: No weird AI artifacts or melting faces.
• Lightweight: Runs in the browser, no heavy rendering farms needed.

🚀 The Experiment Continues

I built this not just as a tool, but as a proof of concept: Can we engineer luck? By reducing the cost of "High Quality" production to zero, we can flood the zone with high-signal content, lets see!

First 6 Days

1 - 6 January 2026

Wow! I absolutely did not expected this! My Instagram followers rarely changed from last 3-4 years despite being public account.
It went from 450 followers to 2000+ in couple of days! from 500-1000 views to 165,506 views!

Here's the viral post on Instagram.

The Relativity of Success (Moving the Goalpost)

Here is the final property of the Power Law: It scales logarithmically.

Right now, a 50k view video (Merkle Trees) looks like a massive Tail Event. It is a 15x outlier compared to my average.

But as I keep increasing my trials (n), the probability of hitting a true outlier (1M+ views) increases. When that happens, the entire scale shifts:

1. Today: 50k is a Tail Event 🚀
2. Next Month: 50k becomes a Strong Signal 📈
3. Next Year: 50k becomes Random Noise 📉

This is the Compound Effect of Volume. By consistently playing the game, you don't just get more views; you redefine what "success" looks like.

If the hypothesis holds, my current ceiling will eventually become my floor.

And if I ever reach that scale, I will finally be able to answer the ultimate question:

Is there actual leverage in being an "influencer"?

Is there intrinsic value in the attention itself, or is it just fancy marketing that people do to ultimately build a business or sell courses?

I guess we will find out.

Update! Full 30 Days

1 - 30 January 2026